startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

Marketing & Croissance

Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash

Documentation

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

The task is unrelated to financial projections
You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
Provide actionable steps and verification.
If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1.Cohort-based revenue projections
2.Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
3.Headcount planning by role
4.Monthly cash flow analysis
5.Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
6.Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
Target customer segments

Starting Point:

Current MRR/ARR (if any)
Current customer count
Current team size
Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

Expected monthly customer acquisition
Customer retention/churn rate
Average contract value (ACV)
Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

Gross margin or COGS %
S&M budget or CAC target
Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

Revenue modeling approaches
Cost structure templates
Headcount planning guidance
Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

1.New customers acquired
2.Existing customers retained (apply churn)
3.Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
4.Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

Monthly detail for Year 1-2
Quarterly detail for Year 3
Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
Payment processing (% of revenue)
Variable customer support
Third-party services

Target gross margin:

SaaS: 75-85%
Marketplace: 60-70%
E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

Sales team compensation
Marketing programs
Tools and software
Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

Engineering team
Product management
Design
Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

Executive team
Finance, legal, HR
Office and facilities
Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

Roles by stage
Compensation benchmarks
Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

Title and department
Start date (month/quarter)
Base salary
Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

Engineering: 40-50% of team
Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
G&A: 10-15%
Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

Include Funding Events:

Timing of raises
Amount raised
Use of proceeds
Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

Monthly burn rate
Runway in months
Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10):

New customers: -30% vs. base
Churn: +20% vs. base
Pricing: -15% vs. base
CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50):

Most likely assumptions
Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90):

New customers: +30% vs. base
Churn: -20% vs. base
Pricing: +15% vs. base
CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary

3-5 year financial snapshot
Key metrics at scale
Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions

Revenue model and pricing
Growth assumptions
Cost structure assumptions
Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections

Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |

Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |

Section 9: Funding Requirements

Amount needed
Use of proceeds breakdown
Milestones to achieve
Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation

Sanity checks performed
Benchmark comparisons
Risk factors
Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file:

Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md
Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
Provide formulas for key calculations

Financial Model Best Practices

Do:

Use cohort-based revenue model
Include 3 scenarios
Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
Calculate key metrics
Validate against benchmarks
Document all assumptions
Show cash flow and runway
Include fundraising milestones

Don't:

Be overly optimistic on growth
Underestimate costs
Forget fully-loaded compensation
Ignore cash timing
Skip scenario analysis
Use static headcount
Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with:

/market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
/business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]

Notes

Model building takes 45-90 minutes
Results in comprehensive planning tool
Update monthly to track vs. actuals
Share with investors and board
Use for fundraising decks
Basis for budget and hiring decisions
Utiliser l'Agent startup-business-analyst-financial-projections - Outil & Compétence IA | Skills Catalogue | Skills Catalogue