Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

●Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows

●Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

Do not use this skill when

●The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis

●You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

●Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

●Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

●Provide actionable steps and verification.

●If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

1.Define the target market and customer segments

2.Gather relevant market data

3.Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology

4.Validate with top-down analysis

5.Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters

6.Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)

7.Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information:

●Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?

●Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)

●Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)

●Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)

●Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

●Bottom-up calculation frameworks

●Top-down validation approaches

●Industry-specific templates

●Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

For B2B/SaaS:

1.Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)

2.Estimate number of companies in each segment

3.Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment

4.Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

For Consumer/Marketplace:

1.Define target user demographics

2.Estimate total addressable users

3.Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)

4.Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

For Transactions/E-commerce:

1.Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)

2.Determine take rate or margin

3.Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research:

●WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data

●Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates

●Document assumptions clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill):

●Government data (Census, BLS)

●Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)

●Public company filings (10-K reports)

●Trade associations

●Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation:

1.Find total market category size from research

2.Apply geographic filters

3.Apply segment/product filters

4.Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

●Geographic: Regions actually serviceable

●Product Capability: Features needed to serve

●Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt

●Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

Formula:

SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

Conservative Approach (Recommended):

●Year 3: 2-3% of SAM

●Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

Consider:

●Competitive intensity

●Available resources (funding, team)

●Go-to-market effectiveness

●Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

Section 1: Executive Summary

●Market opportunity in one paragraph

●TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

Section 2: Market Definition

●Problem being solved

●Target customer profile

●Geographic scope

●Time horizon

Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

●Customer segment breakdown

●Segment sizing with sources

●TAM calculation with formula

●Assumptions documented

Section 4: Top-Down Validation

●Industry category and size

●Filter application

●Validated TAM

●Comparison to bottom-up

Section 5: SAM Calculation

●Filters applied with rationale

●SAM formula and result

●Segment-level breakdown

Section 6: SOM Projection

●Market share assumptions

●Year 3 and Year 5 estimates

●Customer count implications

●Revenue projections

Section 7: Market Growth

●Industry growth rate (CAGR)

●Key growth drivers

●5-year market evolution

Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

●Public company comparisons

●Customer count validation

●Competitive context

Section 9: Investment Thesis

●Market opportunity assessment

●Key positives and risks

●Venture-scale potential

●Next steps

Step 9: Save Report

Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

●Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md

●Use Write tool to create file

●Confirm file location with user

Tips for Best Results

Do:

●Start with bottom-up (most credible)

●Always triangulate with top-down

●Cite all data sources

●Document every assumption

●Be conservative on SOM

●Compare to public company benchmarks

●Explain any data gaps or limitations

Don't:

●Rely solely on top-down

●Cherry-pick optimistic data

●Claim >10% SOM without strong justification

●Mix methodologies inappropriately

●Ignore competitive context

●Skip validation steps

Example Usage

User: /market-opportunity

Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.

What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"

Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"

What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"

[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

Integration with Other Commands

This command pairs well with:

●/financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model

●/business-case - Include market sizing in business case

Notes

●Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis

●Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations

●Update annually as market evolves

●Conservative estimates build credibility with investors

startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

Documentation